Burlington Election: Meed Ward Wins a Third Term, City Split Three Ways

Note: results are unofficial until certified by the City Clerk. Turnout figures are from the City's live election statistics: 56,863 ballots cast of 160,089 eligible voters.

Marianne Meed Ward will serve a third term as mayor of Burlington. She finished first with 25,025 votes, or 44.29% of the mayoral ballots, ahead of Ward 2 Councillor Lisa Kearns (17,070 votes, 30.21%) and Ward 3 Councillor Rory Nisan (12,650 votes, 22.39%).

Here is how the night, the turnout and each campaign played out.

The Mayoral Results at a Glance

Meed Ward's margin over Kearns was 7,955 votes, or about 14 points. Kearns and Nisan combined for 29,720 votes, 4,695 more than the mayor. Add Demoe and Ramdhonee and the non-incumbent vote reaches 31,467.

How This Compares With Past Mayoral Races

• 2018: Meed Ward unseated a two-term incumbent with 23,360 votes (46.04%).

• 2022: She won in a landslide, 30,135 votes (77.95%), against a thin field where the runner-up took 13%.

• 2026: 25,025 votes (44.29%). That is about 1,700 more votes than 2018 and about 5,100 fewer than 2022.

The 2022 result was never going to repeat. A landslide against a limited field is a different animal from a three-way race with two sitting councillors. The better comparison is 2018, and on that measure she held her ground in a much bigger electorate.

Turnout: A Surge in Ballots

Burlington's recent turnout history tells the story:

On raw numbers, 2026 is the biggest turnout of the cycles we could verify: 56,863 ballots, about 5,800 more than 2018 and about 17,600 more than 2022. As a share of eligible voters it is not a record: 35.5% is well above 2022's 27.6% but short of 2018's 39.79%, because the voters list grew from 142,218 in 2022 to 160,089.

The surge was visible early. More than 22,000 votes were cast before election day, already ahead of 2022's pre-election-day total of about 19,000. Online voting was extended through Oct. 25 after about 5,000 voter information letters went undelivered in Ward 6.

Why More People Voted

• A genuinely contested mayor's race. Two sitting councillors challenged the incumbent, and all three drew crowds. About 250 to 260 residents packed church halls for the September and October debates.

• Affordability. The 2026 budget carried an overall property tax increase of about 4.5%, with Burlington's share at roughly 3%, and the cost of living dominated the campaign.

• A big ballot of local issues. Homelessness, data centres, development, e-scooters, transit and strong-mayor powers all got airtime.

• Convenience. In 2022, about 38% of ballots were cast online. Easier access, plus the extension, helps turnout.

• Open seats. Three of six wards had no incumbent, which draws candidates, signs and door-knocking.

Who Votes in Burlington

Burlington had 186,948 residents in the 2021 Census, with a median age of 44.4. The City's own analysis shows the 65+ population growing faster than any other age group, and a commonly cited estimate puts seniors at roughly one in five residents.

That matters in a municipal election, where older, long-term residents vote at high rates. Messaging about fixed incomes, snow clearing, transit and property taxes lands with that bloc. Any campaign that wanted to win in 2026 had to speak to it, and it shaped how the tax debate played out.

The Mayoral Campaigns

Marianne Meed Ward: Experience Carried the Night

Meed Ward ran as the steady, experienced hand. Her platform was a set of 18 commitments built around affordability, transportation, development, traffic and public safety, and she framed experienced leadership as the central question of the race.

She also had a clear answer on taxes. The 2026 budget raised the overall tax bill by about 4.5%, but the City's own share was under 3%, with the balance coming from the Region and school boards. Critics argued the figure understated the pain at home. Her supporters argued it showed discipline in a difficult year.

Her share fell from 78% to 44%, so it would be technically wrong to call this a mandate. But in a field of three credible candidates, polish, name recognition and a record to run on proved decisive. She was also the beneficiary of a split: two challengers divided a majority.

Lisa Kearns: The Change Candidate Who Surged

Kearns built her campaign on change at city hall. On the stump she described a compassionate-but-firm approach to public safety, proposed a department joining police, outreach and bylaw enforcement with a reopened downtown police substation, and challenged the mayor's use of strong-mayor powers, saying council had become fractured.

Her campaign had energy and ground presence, and in the final weeks her social media took on new life: sharper content, plainer messaging, and a viral post in which she drew a moustache on her own face, a good-humoured answer to the vandalism of her signs. Burlington 365's internal reader polling showed a jump in support in the days after the video.

She finished second with 17,070 votes (30.21%), ahead of Nisan by 4,420 votes.

Rory Nisan: A Strong Idea That Needed More Detail

Nisan, a Ward 3 councillor whose work on flood mapping and the Conservation Halton board Meed Ward herself cited, ran on the Burlington Affordability Guarantee: cap tax increases at the rate of inflation or lower. It was a clear, simple pitch. The problem was what voters did not hear.

At the first debate he promised lower taxes and faster permits without saying exactly how, according to sources who attended. At the Focus Burlington debate, Kearns questioned the scale of savings he had delivered. And with seniors a large voting block, the question residents kept asking was the obvious one: if the budget is capped, which programs or services get cut? The uncertainty and lack of substance on this issue likely scared off potential Nisan voters.

Our read is that his campaign was also lighter on the ground than the others: fewer events, fewer meet-and-greets and less time with the biggest voting blocks, while the social messaging never found the same spark. He started strong but finished third with 12,650 votes (22.39%), 4,420 behind Kearns.

The lesson of his race is that a big idea needs detail to match. Voters wanted to know what a budget capped to inflation would mean for the services they use, and a fuller answer, along with sharper contrasts with his opponents, might have changed the outcome.

Keith Demoe and Yugalkeesor Ramdhonee

Demoe received 1,474 votes (2.60%) and Ramdhonee 273 (0.48%). Both were on the ballot and in the conversation, and both deserve credit for stepping forward.

The Ward Races

Ward 1: Kelvin Galbraith held on with 3,684 votes (48.00%), well down from 63.5% in 2022 in a four-way race. James Kerr (20.52%) and Robert Radway (19.71%) were close behind each other, and Cheryl Hurst took 11.75%.

Ward 2: An open seat after Kearns's run for mayor, and the tightest race in the city. Sean Campbell took it with 2,967 votes (33.44%), just 105 ahead of Gary Carr (32.25%). Masha Brar had 25.61% and Jeremy Gaetan 8.67%.

Ward 3: Another open seat, with Nisan's departure. Mark Carr won with 2,851 votes (30.15%), 263 ahead of Tony Brecknock (27.36%). Katy Moore (16.03%), Lisa Cooper (15.33%) and Kyle Hutton (11.11%) split the rest.

Ward 4: A two-way contest for the seat Shawna Stolte is leaving. Olivia Duke won with 4,669 votes (52.26%) over Chris Carter (47.73%), a 405-vote margin.

Ward 5: The night's incumbent upset. Alex Don won with 3,360 votes (33.19%), defeating incumbent Paul Sharman (31.33%) by 188 votes. Kristy Dickinson took 28.27% and Brian Machan 7.19%.

Ward 6: Incumbent Angelo Bentivegna won with 3,603 votes (34.72%) in a seven-candidate field, down from 61% in 2022. Frank Domenic finished second (29.61%) and Chris Bouchard third (16.40%). This was also the ward hit by the voter-letter mailing error.

Across the wards, three seats changed hands and two incumbents held. Four of six races were decided by fewer than 550 votes, which is a good reminder that every ballot counts.

What the 2026 Election Tells Us

• Turnout rose with competition. A real race, visible debates and an affordability debate that touched every household brought voters out.

• Change was on the ballot, but it was divided. A majority voted against the incumbent. Consolidating behind one challenger might have produced a different result, though no one can assume every vote would have transferred.

• Specifics win. Kearns, with the clearest message and the best late momentum, finished second; Nisan, with the biggest idea but the thinnest detail, finished third.

• Council will look different. Three new faces and one upset mean fresh voices at the table.

The Bigger Picture

Elections like this one are a sign of a healthy city. Thousands more neighbours showed up, argued about taxes and traffic, packed church halls for debates and put real choices in front of each other. The mayor has her mandate and a clear message on what 55.7% of voters were looking for. The challengers raised the bar. And Burlington, by the numbers, is paying attention.

All numbers are based on results published October 26, 2026 at 10 p.m. Election results are unofficial until certified by the City Clerk. Results last checked Oct 26, 2026.